Backgammon – Skill vs. Luck

Any professional backgammon player will tell you that backgammon is a game of skill but what they will also tell you is that anyone can get lucky and beat anyone else. If you are getting bad rolls and your opponent is getting great rolls, it doesn’t really matter how bad your opponent is, they are a huge favourite to win. That’s why most matches are a series of games.

Skill will only prevail over the long run. In the short run, even in a three point match, a beginner could beat an expert. You take that same beginner and put them in an eleven point match against that same expert and I know where I would place my bet.

There has been talk of ways to change the rules to reduce the luck factor and make the game even more a game of skill. Phil Simborg created the “Simborg Rule” where the opening roll cannot be used to make a point (e.g. you roll 3-1, you cannot play 6/5, 8/5). This rule has been recommended for tournament play.

The main reason we don’t change the game to all skill and little luck is that where would the fun be? Part of the game is the unpredictability. If it was all skill, then a professional would always beat an amateur and the best overall player would always be the top player.

If you want to play a game of strictly skill, I suggest you take up chess. Otherwise, you have to accept that sometimes you are going to lose to a player of lesser calibre and if you bet on the game, you’re going to lose money. But hey, that game could set you up for a lot of rematches where you are still the favourite to win.